In this paper we extend our 2024 analysis by focusing on differentiating macroeconomic productivity gains enabled by AI across countries.

Key takeaways

 
  • The adoption of AI among businesses and households is progressing quickly, although it is still in its initial phases. There is considerable potential for wider implementation. The productivity improvements driven by AI are expected to be substantial. 
     

  • The macroeconomic impact varies across countries. Generally, advanced economies are readier than emerging ones to adopt AI. However, some emerging economies, such as China and a few Eastern European countries, are among the leaders in AI preparedness. 
     

  • We expect AI-driven capex to be more broad-based going forward. The United States will be an early winner in the first decade of AI adoption, while DM Europe will follow in the second decade, with a lower contribution to GDP growth (around 0.3pp). Asia currently lags behind in the estimated impact. 
     

  • Competition and innovation should help broaden the benefits of the new technology across the economy by lowering barriers to entry, accelerating adoption and creating new opportunities.

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